Showing posts with label Arthur Laffer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arthur Laffer. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Laffer's Warning

Economist Arthur Laffer, from the Wall Street Journal today:
In 1930-31, during the Hoover administration and in the midst of an economic collapse, there was a very slight increase in tax rates on personal income at both the lowest and highest brackets. The corporate tax rate was also slightly increased to 12% from 11%. But beginning in 1932 the lowest personal income tax rate was raised to 4% from less than one-half of 1% while the highest rate was raised to 63% from 25%. (That's not a misprint!) The corporate rate was raised to 13.75% from 12%. All sorts of Federal excise taxes too numerous to list were raised as well. The highest inheritance tax rate was also raised in 1932 to 45% from 20% and the gift tax was reinstituted with the highest rate set at 33.5%.

But the tax hikes didn't stop there. In 1934, during the Roosevelt administration, the highest estate tax rate was raised to 60% from 45% and raised again to 70% in 1935. The highest gift tax rate was raised to 45% in 1934 from 33.5% in 1933 and raised again to 52.5% in 1935. The highest corporate tax rate was raised to 15% in 1936 with a surtax on undistributed profits up to 27%. In 1936 the highest personal income tax rate was raised yet again to 79% from 63%—a stifling 216% increase in four years. Finally, in 1937 a 1% employer and a 1% employee tax was placed on all wages up to $3,000.

Because of the number of states and their diversity I'm going to aggregate all state and local taxes and express them as a percentage of GDP. This measure of state tax policy truly understates the state and local tax contribution to the tragedy we call the Great Depression, but I'm sure the reader will get the picture. In 1929, state and local taxes were 7.2% of GDP and then rose to 8.5%, 9.7% and 12.3% for the years 1930, '31 and '32 respectively.

The damage caused by high taxation during the Great Depression is the real lesson we should learn. A government simply cannot tax a country into prosperity. If there were one warning I'd give to all who will listen, it is that U.S. federal and state tax policies are on an economic crash trajectory today just as they were in the 1930s. Net legislated state-tax increases as a percentage of previous year tax receipts are at 3.1%, their highest level since 1991; the Bush tax cuts are set to expire in 2011; and additional taxes to pay for health-care and the proposed cap-and-trade scheme are on the horizon.

We CANNOT provide health care for 30 million people without raising taxes, either directly or indirectly. Our economy CANNOT afford a tax increase at this time, with nearly 10% unemployment (closer to 20% if you count the underemployed and those who have quit looking for work).

Providing health care for 30 million people doesn't do us any good if they cannot find jobs to pay for simple necessities of life like food.

If Obama is lying about not raising taxes to pay for his health care plan, and I have every reason to believe he is since he has before, then we need to stop this public option nonsense immediately. Frankly, I would even go so far as to end the business deduction for health insurance. But I will settle for simply ending the socialist stupidity from the Democrats.

Wednesday, August 05, 2009

LafferCare

Arthur Laffer has a history of brilliance (the Laffer Curve) and idiocy (predicting there wouldn't be a recession back in 2006). Today, he has an editorial in the Wall Street Journal which was brilliant.

While I don't think the government should be involved in health care at all, I have to give Laffer credit for at least coming up with what I would call a reasonable solution to the health care problem:
Rather than expanding the role of government in the health-care market, Congress should implement a patient-centered approach to health-care reform. A patient-centered approach focuses on the patient-doctor relationship and empowers the patient and the doctor to make effective and economical choices.

A patient-centered health-care reform begins with individual ownership of insurance policies and leverages Health Savings Accounts, a low-premium, high-deductible alternative to traditional insurance that includes a tax-advantaged savings account. It allows people to purchase insurance policies across state lines and reduces the number of mandated benefits insurers are required to cover. It reallocates the majority of Medicaid spending into a simple voucher for low-income individuals to purchase their own insurance. And it reduces the cost of medical procedures by reforming tort liability laws.
Depending on how LafferCare is implemented, it might work. It certainly won't be the catastrophe that ObamaCare will.